RafaLint: June 18th
Photo by Beth Wilson
Articles:
- I don’t mind when Toni claps my opponents – Rafa on Toni – old quotes, but a decent collection. (thetennisspace.com)
- Federer In 3-Way Battle For No. 1 At Wimbledon – via the ATP
Video/Audio:
- Nike+ Training promo – just glimpses of Rafa and stuff they’ve used before
- Interview with Toni (Thanks, Inés)
Photos:
- Halle photos in this flickr set by Viridian Cross.
Rafa does social media:
- Rafa’s on Google+ now. He’ll be having a Hangout on the 22nd. (I’d started a NNews Google+ page awhile ago, but hadn’t had time to do much with it…guess I will make time now. Can on actually make time? I need to make the time to learn how to do that too.)
- Video promoting said Hangout – love the way he says “Google Plus”. :D
Tweets about Rafa:
If the above article didn’t make it clear, Darren Cahill explains the Wimbledon ranking situation:
Federer will reclaim #1 if he wins the @Wimbledon title and Djokovic fails to reach the final, breaking Sampras’ record of 286 weeks at #1
— Darren Cahill (@darren_cahill) June 18, 2012
Rafael Nadal will reclaim #1 if he wins the @Wimbledon title and Djokovic fails to make the semifinals.
— Darren Cahill (@darren_cahill) June 18, 2012
Novak Djokovic is assured of retaining the #1 ranking if he reaches the @Wimbledon final.
— Darren Cahill (@darren_cahill) June 18, 2012
Random:
- Reva asked for a special Vamos! shirt to wear to Wimbledon this year, so I made some: European shop; US shop.
Loading ...
Well Darren thats pretty clear then, lets all keep our fingers crossed.
PRAYING HARD for a triple Clay & Grass combo to tie Borg! :o)
The odds for Wimbledon have changed again since Halle; apparently the bookies were somewhat disconcerted by Rafa’s loss (I thought their book on Nadal was better than that). Latest US line today —
TO WIN
Djokovic, 5-4
Nadal, 9-4 (!)
Federer, 9-2
After these three, odds are much greater against anyone else.
Haven’t checked European sites yet; I expect them to make Djokovic/Nadal a bit closer.
Hi Melissa, would you please elaborate about the booking system for me? I tried several times to understand this odds booking, but come up confused more. I appreciate and thank you very much.
Hi, L.L.,
Let me see if I can make this very simple. Betting odds are expressed differently, depending upon whether the bookie is US or European. (That’s a generalization, but it works for us.) Let me stick with the US ones.
Basically, if you bet on a player to win, you expect to receive the amount of your bet back plus any extra that the odds yield you. The bookie’s favorite to win will yield you the least money — as the chances for winning by other, less favored competitors go DOWN, the odds go UP and the yields are greater.
So, if I bet that my son will win Wimbledon rather than Nadal, I stand to make a great deal of money if Nadal loses, because the chances (odds) of my son winning are a zillion to one. But, given those odds, I’m very probably going to lose my $10 bet.
Okay. Now, the odds I quoted above are:
TO WIN
Djokovic, 5-4
Nadal, 9-4
Federer, 9-2
This means:
If I place a $4 bet on Djokovic to win AND he does win, I will receive from the bookie $5 (my original bet plus $1).
If I place a $4 bet on Nadal to win AND he wins, I will receive $9 (my original $4 plus $5).
If I place $4 on Federer AND he wins, I will receive $18 (my original $4 plus $14).
Clearly, then, from these figures, Djokovic is the favorite to win, and I won’t make much on betting on him. You could put it this way: the bookie (actually, several of the top betting houses) thinks that Nadal has about half the chance of Djokovic to win, and that Federer has about 1/4 the chance.
These odds will change over time, and more frequently as the tournament approaches and then is played out. All sorts of things can affect the odds: how the player looks in warm-up tournaments, how he looks in practices, his fitness, any injuries, rumors, withdrawals or successes of his competitors, the number of people and amounts of money bet on him and on his competitors, etc.
Before Halle, Nadal’s odds to win were better — that is, he was a more likely candidate. Those above are after Halle and Aegon. I think odds of 9:4 for Rafa are too high. This morning I found several betting lines, however, that are giving Novak and Rafa equal chances to win.
I hope that I’ve made it clearer?
Hi Melissa, Thank you very much.
L.L., please ignore my “explanation” and go down the page to Claire’s note. I completely screwed up my figures. She’s got the right one. Apologies, mea maxima culpa. Don’t anyone trust me with money today….. 8-(
now it gets interesting but it’s amazing how things seems to be a lot harder for Rafa to become #1 than Roger but that’s just that way it is
Though I’d love to have him #1 (permanently), I’ll take a win in a Grand Slam event over #1 any day. If he keeps winning Slams events, the rankings will eventually follow.
I couldn’t agree more Melissa!
Having fewer points to defend at the slams, Fed has a greater chance for upward mobility.
I don’t mind Rafa being No 2 – less pressure for him. I am happy to see him remain healthy, playing great tennis and that he is enjoying himself on court. Anything else would be a bonus.
Melissa- If you were to place $4 on a player @ 5-4 and he wins, you will receive $9 back from the bookie. $5 winnings plus your stake of $4 back = a total of $9.
DoG-GONE it! I gotta stop posting without proofing first.
Yes, Claire, thank you, you are right, of course. Many thanks for the correction.
Odds of 5-4 means the bettor will get $5 PROFIT for every $4 bet (total return of $9), 9-4 means $9 for every $4 bet (total return of $13), 9-2 means $18 PROFIT for every $4 bet ($22 back).
L.L., I apologize for confusing the issue. *sheesh*