Crunching the numbers



The ATP site has an article up about how the rankings could look by the end of Wimbledon. And…well, it’s not good for Rafa keeping his #1 ranking.

If Federer wins his sixth Wimbledon title and Nadal loses before the semi-finals, then the Swiss will regain No. 1 on July 6. World No. 3 Andy Murray could go to No. 2 by winning Wimbledon but no higher. Even if Murray wins Queen’s his points total won’t change as it would replace the 250 that he won at Doha in January. His 0-point penalty from Indianapolis stays on for 12 months and will drop on July 20.

Read the full article for a more complete analysis.

35 Responses

  1. kefuoe says:

    I don’t know if it’s the years Nadal spent as the second ranked player or what, but this news does not provoke any anxiety in me. I’d really just like to see him playing well (and being happy). Maybe all I’ve been hypnotized by all those press conferences, so now I believe it too!

    • miri says:

      Yeah, I’m not all that big on the rankings. I’d rather him concentrate on what he has to do to keep playing and winning for years and years than worry about being #1.

      • dutchgirl says:

        Same here, it appears that I’m not so anxious about the points and the rankings. All that matters is that he’ll be able to play his best tennis and be happy with it. That way we’re happy as well!

      • Josh says:

        I remember a Rafa video during the US Open 2008, a promo in the Querrey match.

        Rafa said, and I quote; “I am not fighting all the time to be Number 1, I am fighting to play good tournmanet and if it is possible win that tournaments”.

        Thats all I care about Rafa, play good tournament and the rankings can do whatever they want!

  2. loverafa4ever says:

    He will be under less pressure and he will be able to perform a lot better if he is number 2. He had his best results when he was number 2. And if Rafa doesn’t make it to the final at Wimbledon, and if Andy does, I will support Andy.

    • miri says:

      If Rafa’s not there, I think it would be great if Andy wins. I like him and it would be HUGE for a “local” boy to win (and a way for the Scotts to say “neener” to the English – heh).

      • dutchgirl says:

        Yes, that would be nice! A lot nicer than Federer wins because it’s what’s to be expected. If Rafa can’t perform his best, then it shouldn’t be Federer either who wins.

      • loverafa4ever says:

        Yea.. it wud b… but if the opponent in the final is Federer, it wud be difficult. Coz Andy has nvr played Wimbledon final before and I wonder how well he will be able to cope up with the pressure. I really really hope that Andy wins, if Rafa is not around. My second favorite player is Andy. Its also coz he has a lot of respect for Rafa and always mentions him as one of the greatest player. :)…

      • johanne says:

        Isn’t it crazy when you think about Rafa & Roger in terms of who they lose to in Grand Slam finals —- ONLY EACH OTHER. That is nuts! The only times Rafa has lost in a Slam final is to Fed (Wimby ’06 & ’07). And the only times Roger has lost in a Slam final is to Rafa (RG ’06-’08; Wimby ’08; AO ’09).

        If one of them makes the final and the other doesn’t, the odds are surely in their favor to snatch the title from the poor sap across the net. LOL, just kidding…my point is that history will be made if some other dude can beat either Rafa or Roger in the final. Looking forward to Wimby…hope Rafa is there!

        • natch says:

          Or…what if Rafa and Roger both don’t make the final? Obvs, Rafa would be injured. Roger could be beaten by somebody.
          What if we have two newbies vying for the championship? That might be kind of exciting.

          • loverafa4ever says:

            Yea… but if one of them makes it to the final, only dey will win. I think it has to do with experience more than nething else. Nerves must be creeping in for the other player. But it wud definitely b nice to see a new guy winning it this time (iff Rafa’s not around)…

          • johanne says:

            It would definitely be exciting, natch! I was just thinking how crazy it is that Rafa & Roger have that kind of record in relation to each other.

            • natch says:

              This morning I was trying to even remember the last guy to win a slam (other than Nole) besides Rafa and Roger. I can only guess it would be Roddick or Safin, but that’s SO long ago.

              • johanne says:

                I’m guessing it’s Safin at the 2005 AO (besides Nole, like you said). I didn’t even know who Rafa WAS back then!! Not till that year’s French Open did I see him and immediately want to jump his bones. SO LONG AGO, indeed. Madness.

                • natch says:

                  I think I knew who he was, but he was so damn young (frankly, he still is!) that I dared not fantasize.
                  I quickly got over that, tho. ;)

                  I can’t imagine Safin would have much of a chance, the way he’s been playing. This might be very exciting if someone can get Roger out of it. I mean, I don’t dislike him, but I’m not a big fan of his, obvs. I do want him to beat Sampras, so if it has to be, it has to be. But I think two newbies would be a much better final.

                  Poor Rafa. If he plays Wimby, he really would be crazy. I’m hoping for a miracle, but having worked with athletes with similar injuries…well, playing, even on grass, after only two weeks of treatment is like saying, “I would rather not be able to walk when I’m thirty. In fact, let’s see if I can just snap a leg off during this tournament.” Not to mention NOBODY in his camp diagnosed the injury. Shame on all of them for that. I include Rafa because he probably didn’t say anything or indicate there was a problem. Too much testosterone in that camp. If only they would relax the restraining order and let me help…;)
                  I hope he gets well and plays. I really do. But the long-term damage he could do is pretty frightening.

                  • johanne says:

                    I hope Rafa gets well and plays Wimby too. I would be sad for him if he didn’t at least get a chance to defend his title. Maybe he’s thinking he can take a longer break AFTER Wimbledon, who knows. But I honestly believe that whatever decision he makes will be the right decision for him. Obviously there’s a million opinions out there about his inury, his knees, his playing schedule, his career, even his confidence – but only Rafa can decide what he wants to do. I will support him no matter what! Vamos Rafa! :)

    • jimmy says:

      Count me in as a supporter of Murray or Nole if Rafa doesn’t play. I think the only person capable of posing any sort of problems to Fed is Murray, but unfortunately for the Scot, he’s not been able to beat other players to reach to the Fed. It’s the same problem that Rafa had in ’05 to ’07.

      • loverafa4ever says:

        I am sure this time around it going to be very different. Andy is lot more confident against other players and I wud be surprised if he doesnt make it to the semis.

        • jimmy says:

          Amen to that. If Rafa can’t, then I hope Muzzah makes it all the way. Transcendent domination by Fed always becomes boring for me.

          • aRafaelite says:

            I’m with you there Jimmy! I don’t dislike Federer and I hope his recent wins bring him some peace of mind, but as someone for whom Rafa is going to be Number 1 for as long as he keeps playing (whatever his ranking!) I get a bit tired of all the Fed-GOAT-love (I still think Sampras was the better player)! I’d love to see ‘Becky’ win a really big tourney, or Gonzalez, but Nole and Murray would work for me too! I wish I could get behind Andy a bit more, but as former Henman fan he doesn’t quite hit the right buttons for me. Get well Rafa, show them who’s truly the greatest!

            • jimmy says:

              The reason I said Andy Murray is that he’s the only one (besides Rafa) who’s not intimidated by Fed, and has the game to beat him. So I wish he does well. I really don’t want to get bored watching Fed straight set some poor soul in the final.

              “”I get a bit tired of all the Fed-GOAT-love (I still think Sampras was the better player)! “”

              Couldn’t agree more with you. The strong era, weak era comparison is particularly apt here. Pete was unfortunate to be playing in an era with so many champs.

  3. johanne says:

    Yeah I’m fine with whatever happens in the rankings. It was nice that Rafa ended last year as No. 1 because he had such a fantastic year, so it was fitting that he stayed on top. Plus it would have sucked if he lost the top spot at the very end of the year, considering he was already kinda bummed out for missing Davis Cup and Masters Cup. So that is a very good new. ;) Vamos Rafa!

  4. June says:

    Rankings, schmankings . . . Who cares at this point, except about RAFA’s health — I agree w/everyone on this. Here’s some good news that I’m sure RAFA has already heard about that probably made his day “Christian Ronaldo is going over to Real Madrid futbol team from Manchester United along w/Kaka being signed from AC Milan.” (my son informed me of this). Sorry, Miri & others if it’s not really tennis-related, but I thought if it makes RAFA happy, then it makes his fans happy :-)

  5. faecoleman says:

    I agree June, Rafa’s 2nd passion is definately his footie, so congrats to that! he needs some good news right now! I also think, just play well and your ranking takes care of itself, too much attention to rankings brings pressure, something Rafa can do without, but the problem with Rafa is when he was! no.2 he hadn’t been no.1, if he were to go back to being no.2 or lower it would be different I think, he has worked so hard to get to be there @ no.1 and to lose it because of a louzy injury is tough, he is only human after all. I for one hope whatever happens that Rafa will get through it. Can he see it as another challenge? how mentally strong is he? this could be his biggest test yet. Come on Rafa, show them what your made of! we believe in you! Just watching Queens I am sooo missing Rafa on court!

  6. Atch2 says:

    Who cares abt the rankings. He’s a great tennis player and person what number is in front of him. As long as Rafa is fit, healthy and happy, he’ll be playing well and the results will speak for themselves.

    As Rafa said in Miami 09
    “Different between 2 and 1? Completely the same for me. Yeah, no changes.
    For me the goal is the same: try to improve my tennis and try to continuing have the good results. In the end, is only one number. No. 1 and No. 2 is only one number of difference.
    You know, I say it 100 times, no? I didn’t go to sleep thinking if I am No. 1 or No. 2, and I didn’t wake up thinking about if I am the No. 1 or No. 2.
    I think about I have to play well today or I have to practice well today. I have to improve. Yeah”

  7. niki says:

    Just to be the lone voice of dissent, I’ll go out on a limb and say I will be disappointed if Rafa loses the #1 ranking. It will make it even worse if he loses it just because of an injury.

    Do I think his health and career longevity come before all else? Absolutely, 100%. The #1 ranking is nothing compared to a healthy body. But I’d be lying if I said I don’t care about the rankings or they don’t matter to me, because honestly he deserves to be #1 with the results he’s had in the past year. Not to mention being “the best” and ranking at the top of one’s field is something that all competitors strive for. So to get there, have outstanding performances, then lose it because your body won’t let you continue is, quite frankly, a big bummer. The end of the world? Definitely not. But totally a bummer.

    Obviously, I’ll support and love Rafa win, lose, or injury; I just felt like someone should stir the pot and fess up that it’s going to suck if he has to hand the #1 back over to Fed after such an epic battle to gain it.

    • Trish says:

      I agree. I want a healthy happy Rafa first — but as a fan — somewhere inside, it is going to suck if Rafa loses his #1 ranking (and please, Fed #1 — ugh… )

      • Atch2 says:

        I’ve got to admit that I will be a bit sad if Fed goes back to no.1, but it’s not bec Rafa’s played bad. He’s won 5 tournaments on 2 surfaces! It’s bec of his health.

        And I don’t understand the media. Now after Roland Garros, they get to finally crown Fed the GOAT, and they have dropped Rafa like a hot potato. Murray, Nole and Rafa have been the most consistent with good performances so far in the yr and deserve cheering for.

        Miss u much Rafa!

        • faecoleman says:

          I quite agree Atch2, they have an advertisment of Wimbledon on the bbc showing Andy playing Roger, then they show Rafa, (THE DEFENDING CHAMPION! REMEMBER LOl….) its all about Roger and Andy, and I read somewhere that Roger said that he’s main rivals at Wimby are Tsonga??? and Andy Murray for wimbledon. No mention of Rafa then!

          • Clare says:

            This happened at the Aussie Open as well, no one even seemed to notice that Rafa was here. Murray and Federer were all the rage with the media & the Melbourne Park promotions people. Federer actually even sledged Andy during the build up, saying he didn’t deserve the favourable treatment he was getting. Djokovic was the defending champ and getting minimal attention, while Rafa got absolutely none!!!

            And that worked out ok in the end ;) !!!

  8. naaz says:

    I don’t really want to care out the ranking but i don’t wanna see him lose it coz of injury. Anyway, as long as he is healthy and able to compete at 100% i don’t care. Anyway while we stress, check a video out in utube(Rafael Nadal – Wimbledon Fantasy – Unthinkable Journey) shows how far he’s come. he has so muuch 2 be proud of. the same video is also on his site.


  9. An says:

    I see it this way… ( and more important, by reading and hear Rafa speak, i think Rafa thinks it this way too )

    If Rafa is fit and healty and able to compete at his own high level he will win manny more tournaments and getting back ( if he might lose it )the no.1 ranking will be a consequence… There is nothing else that can make him capture, lose or win it back than playing and winning and for that he needs his health and be fit.
    So, his health is what i want most of all, the rest will follow!

    I have a feeling ( as i had last year that Rafa would winn ) that its Murrays turn this time around altough, off course, i hope i’m so wrong, cause i wanna see my ( our ) Rafa biting that trophy again!!

    Get well soon y Vamos Rafa!

  10. vamsi says:

    who cares about the bloody rankings
    that roger guys has been there from a long time
    with or without that ranking he will still be a gracious champ
    and anyways i think if rafa is not there then djokovic could have the trophy in his hands

    anyways good luck for the rest of the guys for a boring wimbly without rafa(if……………)

    VAMOS rafa