The ATP site has an article up about how the rankings could look by the end of Wimbledon. And…well, it’s not good for Rafa keeping his #1 ranking.
If Federer wins his sixth Wimbledon title and Nadal loses before the semi-finals, then the Swiss will regain No. 1 on July 6. World No. 3 Andy Murray could go to No. 2 by winning Wimbledon but no higher. Even if Murray wins Queen’s his points total won’t change as it would replace the 250 that he won at Doha in January. His 0-point penalty from Indianapolis stays on for 12 months and will drop on July 20.
Read the full article for a more complete analysis.